Realizado por Mohamed-Badr Er-rahoui. Estudiante de Master de International and Humaritarian Studies en la Mohamed V University
ABSTRACT
In the centuries following the Napoleonic campaigns in Europe, wars that were decided by cavalry charges and booming cannons became a tale of old. The tides of war shifted dramatically By the end of the Second World War, one truth became undeniable. Whoever controls the skies can dictate the fate of the battle. And for long, American wings controlled the skies and dominated the market with cutting edge technology and proven combat effectiveness, Russia, ex-Soviet Union trailed behind, with a strategy that appealed to cost conscious customers, but the war in Ukraine diverted resources and curbed production. Western platforms, though advanced and highly sophisticated, face high production costs and their exports are subject of political restrictions. Then comes China who offers affordable and advanced systems but lacks combat-testing.
The 2025 Operation Sindoor carried out by the Indian Air Force (IAF) in retaliation to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, in the Indian Kashmir region, ended in controversy, as the IAF claimed the successful bombing of several sites suspected to be terrorist hubs, Pakistan claimed to have downed three Rafale jets, one mig-29, one sukhoi-30 and one Indian drone using it’s JF-17 thunder and J-10C fighter jets equipped with the Chinese pl-15 missile.
U.S. Air Power: Dominant but Challenged
American platforms dominate airfields and markets alike, with 43% share of global arms export. American jets have served as means of influence, power projection and dominance, with legendary fighters such as the F-16 Falcon, the mighty F-15 Eagle, that is yet to lose a combat, with over 100 documented victories, it’s state of the art F-15EX II is set to retire the fearsome A-10 Warthog.
The f-35 Lightning II, the first 5th gen fighter set for exportation was expected to dominate the market with its high-end radar sensors and stealth technology but suffers from high price, maintenance costs and logistical dependance on the U.S. this was exacerbated by a rumored killswitch within the F-35 .
Russia’s Decline: A Decaying Juggernaut
Russian jet exports have seriously plummeted, due to high losses in Ukraine, funds and spare parts shortages in addition to delayed production. The mig-29 Fulcrum, which was meant to rival the Falcon, was humbled in Ukraine with an estimated 22 losses since 2022. The Sukhoi, mainly the Su-30 Flanker-C, Su-35 Flanker-E and the Su-34 Fullback have similarly underperformed in Ukrainian skies.
Russia seems hesitant to deploy its fifth gen fighter the Su-57 Felon, as its 5th gen fighters fleet is already too small, with around 24 pieces, one loss can prove too difficult to replenish due to heavy western sanctions.
The Su-75 Checkmate, pitched as an export rival to the F-35 is already facing delays, having not undertaken a flight test yet. The program hinges on foreign investment as well, Russia’s traditional partner, India have cooled down its interest as it’s favoring a «made in India» approach to its defensive capabilities, pushing Russia to start talks with countries like Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. who are traditionally American clients.
Europe’s Hurdles: Premium Jets, Modest Setbacks
2025 has been marked with an unprecedented shift in European procurement strategy, this shift was prompted by rising concerns over U.S. security guarantees after it cut of Ukrainian access to U.S. intelligence, military aid, it’s warming relations with Russia and the rumored F-35 killswitch, though denied by the Pentagon.
European manufacturers offer some high-end 4.5 gen alternatives for the f-35. The Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F, the Eurofighter Typhoon, a joint program between Britain, Germany, Spain and Italy. And the most renowned European jet remains the French Dassault Rafale. These jets, while very advanced and reliable, suffer from high costs of production and their exportation remains subject of political restriction usually tied to human rights.
Rafale, the most exported jet, with a 157% surge in revenues since 2015. India’s first choice for upgrading its air capabilities and checking Pakistani air force, yet it’s rumored underperformance during the Sindoor operation, prompted a modest drop in its stock 1.36-3.3%. Neither France nor India have verified or confirmed the Pakistani claim of three jets downed but an unconfirmed French intelligence claim to CNN that one downing is verified was enough to fuel speculations and hurt the jet’s reputation.
China’s Surge: Best of two worlds
China combines the best of two worlds; its platforms boast similar technologies to those of the U.S. regardless of how they were acquired and the affordability of Russian made jets. However it lacked combat proven effectiveness which humbled it’s sales, but things are changing. Pakistan’s performance during operation Sindoor proved that the label «made in China» is no longer a joke or a proof of poor quality.
Pakistan’s claims, though unverified remain bold. 5 Indian jets downed and three rafales among them is a serious marketing tool for it’s co-developped JF-17 Thunder with Pakistan, it’s J-10C Vigorous Dragon and it’s Pl-15 missile which takes credits for Pakistan’s high tally of Indian jets, knowing that it supplied Pakistan with it’s demoestic version of the Pl-15 missile meant for use by Chinese military, this version has improved range and guidancee systems in comparaison to it’s export version the PL-15E, this moves highlights a strategic move that introduced Chinese weapons to the global stage.
This was translated when the maker of the JF-17 and J-10C, surged 18% post-incident. China is also eying the 5th gen market, it’s J-35 Gyrfalcon is a twin engines answer to the F-35, with Pakistan as a key buyer and China planing to accelerate the delivery process. It seems likethe J-35 isn’t just a rival to the F-35 but is also after the Su-57 and Su-75 status of cost-efficient western rival and share of the 5th gen market.
China’s Moment: A void to exploit
Looming uncertainty about the credibility of American security guarantees, Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, Europe’s low production rates and defense budgets have delayed rearmament plans, overall these factors have left a void in the fighter jet market. China is stepping in with effective marketing of the JF-17’s “combat-tested” status and the J-35’s fifth generation promise. If Pakistan’s tally is confirmed or expands , China could seize market shares in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, marking its first step in a direct arms trade rivalry with the U.S. and this Chinese expansion has already started. Egypt, another important U.S. ally and client has shifted toward Chinese platforms and is strongly rumored to have procured a fleet of J-10B/C,Y-20U aerial refueling tankers.